IDI: 640,000 New Ballots Could Decide 12 Knesset Seats

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, Oct. 27, for a general election that will determine the composition of the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 eligible voters are between the ages of 18 and 22. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. The IDI projects that the voting choices of these first-time participants could determine the outcome for up to 12 legislative seats.

Tammy Hoffman, who leads the education policy program at the IDI, stated that the institute co-sponsored a recent event with the Yigal Allon Center to engage this demographic. She noted that Israel has a high birth rate and a young population. Hoffman said that if turnout remains high, as their research indicates, these new voters will influence the final tally. A May survey by the IDI found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to cast a ballot.

National security and the cost of living emerged as the top priorities for young voters in both the IDI survey and a separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth. Hoffman attributed this focus to the recent history of this cohort, who were in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. She described the group as worried about their future.

Political affiliation among young voters remains varied. An N12 poll from Sept. 23 indicated that 74% of young people identified as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same survey, 16% of respondents planned to support Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, and 14% planned to support Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools showed strong support for Yashar and Beyachad, the party led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with less support for Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right party.

Individual voters expressed distinct motivations. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, is in an army preparation program and plans to vote for either Yair Golan’s Democrats or Yashar. She criticized the government led by Netanyahu, who has been in office since 2009 with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022. Omer Gross of Jerusalem, who is in a program in the Golan, intends to support the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He cited a desire for a strong and secure Israel.

Other young voters focused on specific policy goals. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliya, will vote for the opposition change bloc. He wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, cited economic factors such as tuition and housing as reasons for supporting the Democrats. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, seeks an Arab party that addresses resource gaps and crime in Arab communities.